2013 copper and molybdenum production forecast

Copper: Chinese production is expected to maintain a moderate growth
"In 2013, global copper supply growth will accelerate China's copper production is expected to maintain a moderate growth trend." March 28, Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. analyst Yang Changhua make predictions, to benefit from the mine copper production rebounded sharply and copper smelting capacity expansion, global refined copper production is expected to reach 20.65 million tons, an increase of 4.1 percent. According to Yang Changhua analysis, global copper project put into operation gradually entered the peak of last year's global copper project into production about 20 (excluding China), with production capacity of about 820,000 tons; this year, there are still about 20 copper project put into operation, the new production capacity at 122 million tons, including the Mongolian Oyu Tolgoi copper mine 450,000 tons of production capacity. "A lot of capacity release, will drive copper concentrate production increased at a faster pace." Yang Changhua said, "this year's global copper concentrate production will reach 13.62 million tons, an increase of 6%." National Bureau of Statistics recently released data show that this year the first two months, the cumulative production of refined copper 975,000 tons, an increase of 11.9%.
Antaike analytical data show that in 2013, global refined copper will still continue the trend of oversupply is expected oversupply of about 400,000 tons; China's refined copper imports may fall, but the excess supply will remain at 70 million tons.
Molybdenum tube: weak demand hardly be optimistic about rising prices
2012, 40-45% molybdenum price for 1632 yuan / ton degrees, far below the average price of 2730 yuan since 2004 / metric ton level, also below the cost of production of primary ore costs 1800 yuan / metric ton. In this regard, Antaike assistant general manager, tungsten, molybdenum, vanadium project manager Xu Aihua said that although the price of molybdenum molybdenum industry for several years down the basic completion of the production capacity and proactive initiative to de-stocking process, but hardly be optimistic about demand for molybdenum, molybdenum prices rise weak.
Xu Aihua believes that the current trend of global economic situation remains uncertain, weak economic growth, which directly affects the development of the steel industry. As a close relationship with molybdenum steel industry, the recent price trend will go through a period of adjustment.
2012, the world's molybdenum production was 22.9 million tons, dropped again in 2009 following the significant decrease of 8.5%. Among them, led by the United States and Chile, respectively, 17% and 26%, while China has increased slightly.
Currently, China, the United States, Chile, the proportion of the world's molybdenum production reached 37%, 26% and 15%. In recent years, the global molybdenum mine production growth will come from China.
According to Xu Aihua expected, from 2013 to 2014, the global molybdenum production were estimated at 250,000 tons, 270,000 tons. In increasing production, she particularly valued the China factor. "Because of China National Gold Group Corporation belongs Osan copper-molybdenum mine in January this year to achieve a successful separation of copper and molybdenum, I expect mine production this year will reach 3,000 tons, output is expected to reach 6,000 tons next year."
Molybdenum reserves are mainly distributed in China, the United States, Chile and other countries, this three countries accounted for 81% of global reserves. Chinese molybdenum reserves the world's first and primary ore mine mostly high grade, low impurity. "At present, the domestic private mining excessive digging small mines serious With industry access policy implementation, I believe the industry leading prices for molybdenum pricing power will increase." Xu Aihua said.
Long term, Xu Aihua still optimistic about the price of molybdenum, she said: "From the end-consumer perspective, molybdenum is mainly used for energy, infrastructure, shipping, aerospace industry and other fields. Obvious gains in these industries in the global third industrial revolution and China new urbanization driven, in the next 10 to 20 years of molybdenum consumption driven back to the track of rapid growth