2013年7月21日星期日

LME rules change in the situation will lead to colored stock sell-off?

Most of the metals futures curve is still kept in contango, so if in the past the banking business explicitly recommended to buy stocks, the use of long-term storage and disposal strategy profitable, so now it seems, Tungsten eletrode to peel the warehouse at the time point of interest somewhat contradictory.
Some analysts believe that the banking industry is out to solve the unprecedented decision by the LME warehouse queues driven - which is full inventory related. These phenomena have begun to damage the LME warehouse owner and the reputation of the system itself. Rules reform has been postponed warehouse owners source of profit, because they will continue to collect rent until the metal stocks actually leave the warehouse building. The longer the delay in reforms, the rent they charge more. However, LME is seeking to stop this profit-driven behavior, which may lead to the profits of the warehouse capacity has been badly hit.
Metals industry may have more things will happen.
Metals industry news sources that industry participants, another pressure point, LME will turn inward clearing. Once given only through the LME trader forced liquidation of the metal, the marginal cost will be doubled, which is likely to impact on those involved in long-term storage and disposal of strategic investors profit levels.
By LCH.CLearnet liquidation, the general is to allow large players, with the other participants in its established range of different commodities, swaps and derivatives for net treatment, but now the base metal net positions will be removed from the process range. This will not only result in collateral positions outstanding at LCH.Clearnet increased demand will increase in the LME metals positions new collateral requirements.
These changes may be sufficient to limit black inventory and store and forward sales strategy in profitability, even if the futures price curve continues to maintain contango.
This will lead to what results?
According to our news source, the result will depend on the nature of those transactions. However, in many cases, it is metal production enterprise's own products sold at a discount to banks, so that demand sluggish economic environment to increase their cash flow. These metals have been stored in the warehouse by banks, the next 2-4 years through the buyback may sometimes be re-sold to the same manufacturers.
Through the "blockage" Warehouse, more and more real metal end consumers have been forced to bypass the LME inventory system, directly to the producers of the - where they would have to pay on the basis of LME quoted at a premium. For a long period of time, this mechanism so that everyone is satisfied (in addition to the end consumer). But only in the presence of repurchase obligation earnings premium (contango) in the context of constantly renewed, this strategy can continue. But now, as far as we know, some manufacturers have chosen to sell their products on the market through to escape repurchase obligations. This has led the market to withstand a large number of products that are not hedged supply, which in turn impact on the spot price correspondingly.
If for marginal costs outweigh the benefits, causing the banks can not continue to move forward extension of these hedge positions, while "clogged" inventory no longer provide additional rental income, the profitability of the whole mechanism now will change. If this happens, when the existing inventory disappear easily anticipated, or base metal prices fall further, or base metals futures contracts contango situation further exacerbated, and may even return to the super contango situation.

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